中信证券：可再生能源扩量提质 绿氢等非电领域迎更有力政策支撑CITIC Securities: Renewables Scale Up and Improve Quality as Green Hydrogen and Other Non-Electric Sectors Gain Stronger Policy Support

According to Green Fuel International Business Network, on July 24, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that on July 23, 2026, the NDRC and other departments issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development, which, with scale expansion and quality improvement and reliable substitution as its main thread, pushes new energy from a supplementary power source to the main power source of the electricity system, setting the tone for the industry's medium- and long-term development.

The report notes that the plan proposes a dual 50% growth target for renewable energy consumption and installed capacity during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and clearly defines new capacity for wind and solar power, hydropower, pumped-storage hydro and concentrated solar power. Notably, the plan adds reliability assessment indicators such as firm output and peak supply capability for the first time, imposing quantitative requirements on renewable energy from the perspective of system support capability and marking a shift from the single pursuit of installed capacity to high-quality development that also weighs system reliability.

On the application side, the plan simultaneously expands the scale of non-electric applications such as green hydrogen and geothermal energy and implements mandatory consumption assessment across all industries, forming two-way control on both the supply and demand sides. This means non-electric utilization has been elevated to a strategic level as important as power supply, and sectors that were previously relatively weak, such as green hydrogen, geothermal energy and biomass, will usher in stronger policy support and a clearer development path.

On the investment front, CITIC Securities believes that wind and solar bases, offshore wind power, energy storage, ultra-high-voltage transmission and load regulation resources have long-term allocation value. As mandatory consumption assessment takes effect and reliable substitution targets become clear, the system-friendly performance and regulation capability of new energy power stations will become core competitiveness, and related equipment and operating entities are expected to benefit.

The report specifically notes that non-electric sectors such as green hydrogen are ushering in stronger policy support and recommends focusing on enterprises with technology reserves and industry chain coordination capabilities. It also recommends paying attention to reform progress in areas such as the power capacity market, as improvements to mechanisms including capacity pricing will further enhance the certainty of profitability for new energy and traditional regulating resources.

Overall, CITIC Securities believes the plan sends a clear signal that renewable energy is moving from scale expansion to a stage that places equal emphasis on technology-driven development and system support, with policy dividends concentrating on efficient capacity, non-electric applications and system regulation resources, providing sustained momentum for the green and low-carbon energy transition.

Analysts further emphasize that as mandatory consumption assessment and reliable substitution targets are implemented, the asset quality and profitability certainty of new energy operators will improve systematically, and supporting mechanisms such as the power capacity market and the green certificate market are expected to be improved at an accelerated pace, providing a sustainable market-based engine for the energy transition and guiding capital toward efficient capacity and system regulation resources.