【能源观察家】氢能产业已跨越[Energy Observer] The Hydrogen Industry Has Already Crossed the Divide

According to Green Fuel International Business Network, developing hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles is an important path for the low-carbon transition of energy and transportation, and a major strategic choice for the world in addressing climate change and advancing green economic growth. Over the past 10 years, China has taken vehicle fuel cells as a pioneer to drive the development of the hydrogen energy industry. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by the first round of policies for building demonstration city clusters for fuel cell vehicles, China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry achieved encouraging results, but still faces huge challenges such as relatively high costs and insufficient resilience.

Recently, a number of national policies have been released in quick succession. The Notice on Launching Pilot Work for Comprehensive Hydrogen Energy Applications issued in March launched the building of demonstration city clusters for hydrogen energy under the 15th Five-Year Plan, setting clear goals of lowering the hydrogen price and "doubling the nationwide fuel cell vehicle fleet from 2025, striving to reach 100,000 units." The Implementation Plan for Promoting the Large-Scale Application of New Energy Heavy Trucks issued in June brings the challenge of a high penetration rate of battery-electric heavy trucks, while the Measures for Implementing the System of Minimum Renewable Energy Consumption Targets and Weighted Responsibilities for Renewable Energy Electricity Absorption will further promote the scaled development of the green hydrogen industry and reduce costs.

At the 2026 International Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Vehicle Conference held from June 10 to 12, many scholars and experts shared their views, generally holding that the hydrogen energy industry has crossed the "valley of death," that the next five years will be an important window, and that the construction of the entire industrial chain of hydrogen production, storage, transportation, refueling and use must be accelerated. Reviewing the development of China's hydrogen energy industry, from 2015 to 2025 vehicle fuel cells, as the pioneer of hydrogen energy utilization, drove the industry's development, but in recent years the industry has generally been full of pessimistic expectations, and in 2025 the industry even entered its lowest ebb. Ouyang Minggao pointed out that green hydrogen is now entering a climbing phase, a process any new technology must go through. Zu Sijie, vice president and chief engineer of SAIC Motor, remarked that this new technology must go through a stage of being tested by the market.

Data show that China has become the world's largest fuel cell vehicle market. By the end of 2025, nearly 40,000 such vehicles had been promoted, with annual sales accounting for 59% of the global total and ranking first worldwide for the first time, while the number of hydrogen refueling stations has ranked first globally for eight consecutive years. In terms of technology, core indicators such as fuel cell systems, on-board hydrogen storage and key materials have reached internationally advanced levels, with leadership in some areas. In terms of scenarios, from buses, logistics, ships and power generation to drones, hydrogen-powered transport has been upgraded into a general-purpose energy carrier for all scenarios. In terms of the industrial chain, a complete ecosystem of production, storage, transportation, refueling and use has been formed, with the domestic content rate of stacks, air compressors, membrane electrode assemblies, bipolar plates and hydrogen circulation systems all exceeding 80%. In terms of cost, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the purchase cost of complete fuel cell vehicles fell by nearly 30%, and the cost of fuel cell systems dropped to 1,800 to 2,000 yuan/kW, a reduction of more than 80%. The measured hydrogen consumption of a 49-tonne hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck fell to 8.5 kg per 100 kilometers, and the average hydrogen refueling price also dropped to 30 yuan/kg, with unit operating costs already lower than those of fuel vehicles.

Zhang Jinhua, chairman of the China Society of Automotive Engineers, said that the hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry is entering a new stage of more rational and more pragmatic development. Although the achievements are remarkable, the challenges remain severe, such as the prominent mismatch between hydrogen supply and demand, the serious lack of cross-regional hydrogen transport equipment, and major shortcomings in infrastructure. The current situation is not overcapacity but the coexistence of insufficient effective supply and ineffective expansion, and the industry has entered a critical transition period of survival of the fittest and improving quality and efficiency. The industry is continuously strengthening basic frontier research and key technology R&D, advancing research on wide-temperature-range, high-load fuel cells and long-life, high-power fuel cells, and overcoming technologies and equipment such as efficient water electrolysis for hydrogen production and large-capacity hydrogen storage. Zhang Tianyu, chairman of Great Wall Holdings FTXT Energy, said that ultimately the foundation of all business models is good products, and by continuously optimizing cost and quality, the company's fuel cell engine cost has been reduced by 25% to 30% every year.