欧洲生物燃料行业原料供应存风险Feedstock Supply Risks Loom for Europe's Biofuels Industry

Green Fuel International Business Network has learned that ICIS recently released a report showing that severe weather in core European agricultural regions has reduced crop yields, and Europe's biofuel industry faces risks of raw material supply shortages and rising costs.

ICIS said various weather disasters have caused about 2 billion euros in losses to European agricultural income; production forecasts for core biofuel feedstocks such as rapeseed, corn and sugar beet have been revised down, and against the backdrop of tight global feedstock supply, profit margins for European biofuel companies may continue to come under pressure. Excessive spring rainfall and waterlogged soils in parts of Western Europe, followed by sustained heatwaves during the critical summer grain-filling period, meant a series of abnormal weather events led major European grain and oilseed producing regions to lower their output expectations.

The European grain and oilseed trade association COCERAL sharply lowered its production forecast: total grain output in the EU-27 plus the UK in 2026 is expected to fall to 286.6 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 295.5 million tonnes and far below last year's 310 million tonnes. Total wheat output in the EU and UK is expected at 140.8 million tonnes, below the previous year's 149.8 million tonnes. COCERAL forecasts total corn output in the EU plus UK at only 52.7 million tonnes, against an earlier forecast of 57.2 million tonnes. In France alone, corn output is expected to plunge to 9.4 million tonnes, a more than 20-year low, compared with 13.8 million tonnes last year.

First-generation biofuel producers rely heavily on crop feedstocks: biodiesel mainly uses rapeseed, while bioethanol is produced from corn, wheat and sugar beet. Reduced agricultural output may tighten regional feedstock supply and raise production costs, further squeezing profits across Europe's biofuel industry. COCERAL forecasts EU plus UK rapeseed output at 21.2 million tonnes, against a previous estimate of 21.5 million tonnes. MARS has lowered the EU average rapeseed yield to 3.14 tonnes per hectare, down 2% from its earlier estimate.

Industry companies say that with tightening domestic supplies of feedstocks such as rapeseed oil and grain ethanol, European blending companies may have to increase raw material imports or make greater use of waste feedstocks as substitutes. Whichever option is chosen, higher production costs are now a foregone conclusion, and the raw material supply risks facing Europe's biofuel industry deserve continued attention.